Here’s the Thing
I know it may be hard to believe, but at one point in my life, I was on the advisory board for a Melbourne nightclub. The manager of the club had the habit of saying “Here’s the thing.” It took me a while to learn that whatever the ‘thing’ was, it almost certainly wasn’t what he was about to explain! It proved to be yet another fascinating stage in my life, one where I was never quite sure what was true, and what wasn’t.
If someone is smart and deceptive, knowing what is actually happening can be very illusive. It is not just that the truth is elusive (like that play on words?), but worse. Misled or deceived without really knowing if you are being tricked, it is the world of conmen, scammers and fraudsters, people who say things because they want you to believe them, and in some cases may even believe they are true themselves. At the same time, it is the world of business and politics.
Let’s look at the US and international relations. You must be aware that President Trump has pulled out of the agreement with Iran (pulled the US out, I mean). How is this being seen? There are several possibilities, including:
- It’s a great idea. The Iranians are weasels, they are still making nuclear weapons, and the only way to stop them is enforcing rigorous international sanctions covering everything. Make them to stop!
- It’s a terrible idea. The Iranians have been following the no nuclear weapons agreement, and we have been spared the risk of yet another country having these armaments. The country has been slowly improving.
- It’s a ploy to get Hassan Rouhani to the table with President Trump, since Trump is a great negotiator, and he can make sure the Iranians play ball.
Obviously, to sort this out, we need some facts. Ask the inspectors monitoring what the Iranians are doing? Good idea, but, how can you guarantee that they are being shown everything? They say that the Iranians have been keeping to the agreement, but that didn’t seem to help, because it seems the US knows more – doesn’t it?
Maybe we could be certain by getting someone from over there to come here and tell us the truth. But suppose he tells you there’s no work being done on explosives and bombs? What did you expect this person to say – after all, the Iranians are going to keep any nuclear warfare work secret! Or maybe he says there is work being done on a nuclear bomb. If it’s true (how would we be certain?), perhaps the Iranians had been scared Trump was about to reimpose sanctions, and needed something to give them leverage. All in all, the truth is definitely hard to find.
Now you and I know the real story. The Iranians have been keeping to their side of the deal. How do we know that? Well, the liberal press, the French and the Germans all say that’s the case. Just a minute, when did we start believing everything the French or the Germans said? For heaven’s sake, we’re talking about the French here. We know all about them, and the Germans, too. You can never really trust the continentals!!
The New York Times should be OK, but how good is its information? After all, its writers see the world the same way we do, and they collect their information from the same people who are briefing the French and the Germans. Oh dear.
Now, you must also be aware that President Trump has just decided he is not going to (but still hoping to, still believing in the near future he is going to?) sit down at the table with Kim Jong-un of North Korea. How would such a meeting be seen? Again, lots of different views:
- It’s a great idea. He’s promised to stop making nuclear weapons, and now we would be able to talk about relaxing sanctions.
- It’s a terrible idea. He’s lied about everything in the past, and he will do so again in the future. Of course he’s going to continue making nuclear bombs.
- Once again, you’re missing the point. It’s a (so far ineffective) ploy to ensure President Trump, a great negotiator, will meet with Kim Jong-un, and be able to make a deal to ensure peace, eliminate nuclear weapons, and solve the Korean crisis once and for all.
[Oh, and win the Nobel Peace Prize …]
If you are confused at this point, it’s okay. We’re all worried about countries obtaining nuclear weapons. On the one hand, it’s a great idea to impose sanctions on the Iranians, as that will stop them making missiles. Easy. However, it’s a great idea to relax them for the North Koreans, who were making nuclear weapons when they were enclosed by a ring of sanctions, but will stop doing so if we lift them.
Hasn’t Kim Jong-un lied, lied and lied, while continuing to make nuclear weapons? Yes. Hasn’t the Iranian leadership admitted they started down that path, but now keep providing evidence to show they’ve stopped?[i] Yes.
In conclusion, we know that sanctions allow the manufacturing of nuclear weapons and prevent their manufacture. We know that people tell the truth, except when they are lying.
I’m impressed this is a situation that Trump can address. He’s made it clear he’s a great negotiator, and he’ll be able to make a great, really great deals with both countries … if he gets to the negotiating table … and if he is as good as he says he is (I didn’t mean to say that last bit, the devil made me write it).
Perhaps all this high-flown international stuff is too demanding. Let’s move on to children!
Now here’s the thing. We know our child’s abilities. We know how smart he or she is. We know he or she excels in various ways which we frequently point out to family and friends.
Then one day we receive the annual school report, which doesn’t match up to what we know, suggesting our child achieved poor grades in arithmetic, reading, comprehension (or physics, geography and French if your child is a little older). Now, let’s be clear, you know your child, and you offer lots of help and support at home. So why is this report so out of touch with what you know?
Once again, a few possibilities come to mind:
- The teacher/school is doing a poor job
- Your child is less able than you thought
- You need to sit round a table with the teacher(s) and find out what’s happening and what can be done
- You need to get President Trump along to negotiate a better deal for your child
[Oops, I don’t know how that last one got there?!!]
Discussing this at home, your partner believes (2) is true; you believe (1) is. Since you believe the teacher is incompetent, you can’t see any point in talking to the teacher, and think you should move your child to another school. Your partner disagrees, and says it is worth asking what you can do to improve your child’s performance. To avoid divorce, you decide on getting some tests done. Unfortunately, the results of the test are not good, but you knew that would be the case, as they are obviously a consequence of your child having an incompetent teacher/school.
Then you meet those people down the street one day, the ones you got to know when you moved into the neighbourhood. They have a child in the same class. You were talking with them about how their child had been going at school – who is a real dumbo if ever you saw one – and discover he (or she) got an excellent report. How could that be? Alternatives are:
- As you know, the teacher is doing a poor job, and can’t distinguish between the child’s work, and the work which had been done by the parents but presented as the child’s
- Dumbo isn’t as dumb as you first thought
- They got around the table, a deal was made (with money changing hands?), and it’s worked out well
Maybe you should get Trump involved? (Just joking, again!!).
Let’s move on. When it comes to businesses, we are a little more jaundiced, and tend to disbelieve most things companies say. We learnt this from the cigarette manufactures, who told us that smoking doesn’t harm your health, based on extensive research. But the research showed smoking was harmful. They lied.
See, here’s the thing. Companies lie except when they don’t lie. If they say their product removes wrinkles and zits, does not cause global warming, and contains no GMO ingredients, we can be reassured. The fact that the wrinkles remain, that they use power sourced from a coal fired electricity generating station, and almost everything today was genetically modified at some point in the past is … well, it’s confusing. As they point out, what they said at the time was based on what they knew or believed at the time. To say they lied just because you are able to produce contrary evidence today is yet another example of you generating ‘fake news’.
Is all this about facts, or is it about beliefs? Somehow you make sense of your child’s performance based on what you ‘know’, but what you know is often heavily influenced by what you believe to be the case.
There has to be a way out of this, surely. In one sense, facts don’t seem to matter, but how you interpret them does. If you believe something is the case, then that’s going to be the basis for the way you will act. But as far as I am concerned, that isn’t the way it should be. I’m old fashioned. I don’t want to act on the basis of suppositions, I do want to know the facts, what happened, and why. I want to see the evidence.
In case you’re not clear, all this talk about fake news, the lies that politicians and businessmen tell, the world of Donald Trump, it’s slowly wearing me down. I fear that’s the idea (a conspiracy?). Continually being swamped by a never ending barrage of half-truths, lies and confusions, I am reaching the point where I am about to give up. What’s the point of believing anything – or anyone – when there is nothing and no-one left you can trust?
When the manager of the nightclub began to explain something, he said “Here’s the thing.” Learning over time that what he was about to say wasn’t the thing was not enough. Sometimes we managed to find out what was ‘the thing’. There were times we never did. Trust wasn’t there, and we decided we would have to let him go, and find a new manager we could trust. But you can’t do that with Trump or your local school teacher (though I’d love to say “you’re fired” to Trump). Today everything that has been happening has ensured uncertainty has accelerated: as trust declines, the muddles between facts, belief and perspectives become more and more intertwined and tangled. We are in a big mess – right now!
Except I’m still not quite sure.
Okay, just one more time: here’s the thing. President Trump announced he was slapping huge trade embargoes on China, and we all started worrying because we read that he was launching a trade war, which will be bad for us. Prices will go up. Tension will rise. There could be armed conflict. But just today I read that there won’t be a huge trade war, and the US and China are (probably, possibly) negotiating a new trade deal. Did I miss something?
Just suppose, as an exercise in imagination, that Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un sit down at the negotiating table and come to agreement. Kim Jong-un agrees North Korea will stop making nuclear weapons, (he says he’s destroyed the manufacturing facility already), and the US will help the country move into an open economy, growing GDP, reducing poverty They bring South Korea to the table, and the parties agree to abandoning the de-militarised zone between the north and the south, allowing free travel, families to be reunited, and commerce to grow.
Of course, I know it’s not going to happen, but just suppose it did. Then what would I have to say about Donald Trump? And his being awarded the peace prize, for something he did, rather than something he might achieve? And what would I think of his offer to meet with Hassan Rouhani?
So here’s the thing I’ve been worrying about all along: I really don’t know.
[i] A small aside at this point. Who should we listen to? Is the real leadership of Iran the President, Hassan Rouhani, or the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei?
