Promises, and Consequences
The midterms are over. In the midst of all the drama and excited reporting, it might be useful to get some facts out first.
Votes for Democrats in the House surpassed those for Republicans by about 4m. This appears to suggest a 7% swing to the Democrats, compared to the 1% margin the Republicans had in 2016. In case you’re confused, that’s not the same as the voting for President in 2016, where the popular votes was for Clinton, some 3m more than Trump. Let’s get back to the House: it seems clear that the Democrats have taken control of the House of Representatives, and the outcome (subject to recounts and slow counts) is like to be 229 to Democrats and 206 to Republicans. A great result. It will stop Trump and the Republicans’ control of the legislative agenda. If you’re wondering why such a swing didn’t result in more seats for Democrats, remember the gerrymandering problem.
Turning to the Senate, this was disappointing, if not wholly surprising. The Republicans keep control of the Senate, with an increased majority, now 53 to 47 (it was 51 to 49 before). That puts a damper on things. Trump and the Senate continue to control legislative appointments. Further, any attempt by the House to introduce ambitious or challenging laws will not get through. It also means that 2020 is going to be critical for the Democrats, they have to win more Senate seats, and that will be an uphill battle. The Democrat vote for Senate was just over 45 m, compared to just over 33m for Republicans. However, that figure is misleading, as the majority of Senate elections were in Democrat states.
The outcome: Democrats face an uphill challenge in 2020 regaining the Senate, because rural voters are strong supporters of Republicans when it comes to Senate elections.
That’s the big picture. Some details are worth examining.
First, there were a number of issues on the ballot in the states. Some represented good outcomes. Two states approved access to marihuana: making it legal in Michigan, and for ‘medical use’ in Missouri, (although North Dakota rejected that state’s proposal to make it legal). Arkansas and Missouri went for increasing the minimum wage. Two states have agreed to expanding Medicaid and a third looks likely: at a minimum this should increase coverage for some 300,000 low income Americans.
On the downside, Alabama and West Virginia approved banning abortion. They are likely to challenge the longstanding Roe vs. Wade decision of the Supreme Court, a 1973 case that ruled as unconstitutional laws that criminalised or restricted access to abortions. It is hard to assess how such a challenge will turn out. For 45 years this has been a battleground, with conservative forces ensuring the right to have an abortion has been increasingly circumscribed in most states, in terms of limiting them to the first trimester, cutting funding to women and clinics, and removing access to clinics to perform the intervention.
Voting rights have been a hot issue, ever since the 2016 attack on the Voting Rights Act, which removed some critical protections. However, Florida voted to give people with convictions the right to vote, adding 1.5 m people to the voting rolls! Michigan and Maryland also approved measures to make voting easier. However, my home state continued on its restrictive path, with voters approving a measure that requires ID at the polling booth (the form of ID yet to be determined).
One last factoid for this blog. More than 100 women won congressional races, the most ever in terms of their membership of Congress.
What was promised to get the votes in? Donald Trump was out campaigning to the last minute. He promised a tax cut geared at the middle class and pledged more troops at the U.S. Mexico border. I doubt we will hear more about the first of these. After all, he can blame a Democrat controlled House for stymying his best intentions over future tax cuts. The U.S. House of Representatives’ leading lawmaker on taxes suggested on Sunday 4 October that the tax cut plan was unlikely to see action in Congress before 2019, and then only if Republicans keep their majority in Nov. 6 elections. “Really common sense tells you that this (Trump’s new tax cut plan) is something, that as the Republicans retain the House and the Senate, that will advance in the new Congress,” Representative Kevin Brady said on Fox News. He didn’t completely rule out that such a measure could be brought to a vote before year’s end, but said the session of the outgoing Congress which begins in mid-November is “so unpredictable.”[i] Really?
Troops at the border? Well, the famous caravan packed with rapists and murderer is still days, if not weeks away. In the dying days of the campaign, Trump added that there were “unknown Middle Easterners’ who had joined. [ii] There was no evidence to support his wild claims, and no such evidence was provided in testimony during the month by Homeland Security Department and National Counterterrorism Center officials, nor was the threat of terrorists infiltrating the nation’s southern border raised. That is because there is no such credible threat, current and former officials said on Monday. “We do not see any evidence that ISIS or other Sunni terrorist groups are trying to infiltrate the southern U.S. border,” said an American counterterrorism official, who was not authorized to speak publicly about confidential government threat assessments. The promise of troops was to reassure his base, and encourage fear among other less ideological voters. I’m sure it had an effect. As to what will happen when these refugees arrive, I really don’t know.
One thing is certain. Melania and Ivanka Trump are unlikely to be down there, listening to these people, and finding out about their lives, and why they are on the road. Neither would risk damaging their Louboutins or Manolos. The rather pathetic hope that a wife and a daughter would try to reign in the President’s self centred desire to be adored by his tribe of MAGA-lovers was extinguished long ago.
Another promise? On 26 October Donald Trump advanced his proposal that Medicare pay for certain prescription drugs based on the prices paid in other advanced industrial countries. This is a change that could save money for the government and for millions of Medicare beneficiaries. “This is a revolutionary change,” Mr. Trump said in a speech on Thursday at the Department of Health and Human Services. “Nobody’s had the courage to do it, or they just didn’t want to do it.”[iii]
However, the drug proposal would take effect in late 2019 or early 2020 at the earliest. Will it happen? The proposal will most likely face fierce political resistance from drug makers, some health care providers and some Republicans in Congress, and it could also be subject to legal challenges. “The administration is imposing foreign price controls from countries with socialized health care systems that deny their citizens access and discourage innovation,” said Stephen J. Ubl, the president and chief executive of the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America, the main trade group for the industry. He said the proposal would “threaten patient access to innovative lifesaving medicines.” [iv] Um, really?
If you haven’t visited Donald Trump’s twitter page, it’s time you did so. [v] He has a spin on everything. The day after the midterms: “Those that worked with me in this incredible Midterm Election, embracing certain policies and principles, did very well. Those that did not, say goodbye! Yesterday was such a very Big Win, and all under the pressure of a Nasty and Hostile Media!” On Saturday, he made promises for the Democrats: “If Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi gain the majority, they will try to raise your taxes, restore job-killing regulations, shut down your coal mines and timber mills, take away your healthcare, impose socialism, and ERASE your borders.”!! On Monday, he explained it all: “Republicans have created the best economy in the HISTORY of our Country – and the hottest jobs market on planet earth. The Democrat Agenda is a Socialist Nightmare. The Republican Agenda is the AMERICAN DREAM!’
Let’s ask a question of Beto O’Rourke, who sadly failed in his attempt to replace the awful Ted Cruz in Texas. What did he promise? The list includes a price on carbon emissions, and support for environmental preservation; anti-trust laws to break up exploitative monopolies; increasing federal aid for low income area schools; decriminalisation for possessing or using small quantities of marihuana; universal health care, and continuation of the Affordable Health care Act to cover abortions; universal background checks for those intending to purchase guns; and there’s much more. Does this matter, since he lost? Yes, it does. Ted Cruz won in 2012 (his previous Senate election) by 16%, and this time he had to work hard, even enlisting Donald Trump, a person he is known to detest, to win by just 2.6%, in a red Republican state. If this list from Beto O’Rourke is a guide, here’s the beginning of an articulate platform for the Democrats in 2020. Beto O’Rourke is a key figure to watch.
So what will happen now?
The country is divided, bitterly, and nothing has happened that is likely to reduce that in the short term. Congress is also divided, House against Senate. The consequence is likely to be a lot of bickering, a slowdown in legislation, and a lot of ammunition on both sides as we crawl up to 2020. A nasty, fractious, unpleasant environment.
Will this have any impact on Donald Trump? He was in Georgia, on Sunday, 5 November, whirling his way through a series of rallies. There he told a story that might indicate what he likes to here: “It began, Trump said, when he was backstage, and encountered “a very, very powerful guy—big, strong guy—with tears coming down in his face.” The big man said, “ ‘Thank you, Mr. President, for saving our country.’ ” According to Trump, “This happens all the time. This happens all the time.” [vi]
The New York Times story continues: “Did it happen just that way? Does it happen all the time? It is hard to know if that matters to Trump, compared with his essential message: rallies are a time for gratitude, for paying homage. For the crowds, that is perhaps supposed to be empowering and enthralling; they, with their presence, get to be called “very, very powerful.” In the final rally on Monday night, in Missouri, Trump summoned his daughter to the stage (“Ivanka, say a few words—come, honey”) and, with a trilling laugh, she said, “Hi, Missouri! We love you, we love you! So much love!” There were also appearances by Rush Limbaugh (“These rallies!” Limbaugh, a native of Cape Girardeau, Missouri, where the rally was held, told the crowd, as it swung toward a chant of “Lock her up”); Sean Hannity and Jeanine Pirro, of Fox News (a dose of celebrity, and a reminder of the network’s supportive function); Sarah Huckabee Sanders, the White House press secretary; and Kellyanne Conway. As Ivanka walked offstage, Trump riffed on the idea of élites. “I know all the élites. They’re not very smart, in many cases. They have a lot of hatred in their heart,” he told the crowd, and then continued, “We have better houses, homes, boats. We do better than they do, we work harder than they do, we make more money than they do. You—we—are the super élites.””
At each of his rallies, Trump talked about “the mob” that hated America, and the Democrats who led it. Never short of examples, he accused Senator Claire McCaskill, a moderate Democrat, of seeking to push a “horrible socialist agenda.” In Georgia, he said Stacey Abrams as governor would send agents to seize each household’s guns. He added, “You put Stacey in there and you’re going to have Georgia turn into Venezuela.” In Tennessee, he pointed to the press. “I don’t care what they say. I don’t care what the fake media says. That’s an invasion of our country!” He was interrupted by a chant of “Build that wall! Build that wall!” before continuing, “If you want more caravans and more crime—because crime comes with it—vote for the Democrats!”
There was a lot of talk about a ‘blue wave’ sweeping the Republicans from power. On election day, there wasn’t a tidal wave, but there was a shift. Today Trump is exulting how incredibly the Republicans performed. He reminds me of King Canute, who reputedly saw on the shore and commanded the sea to retreat. It didn’t, and he got his feet wet.
Donald Trump believes he stopped the Democratic wave from engulfing him and his horrible views. He didn’t, and he got his feet wet. In 2020, we’ll ensure there’s a bigger wave, and he, and all his racist and self-serving demagoguery will be swept away, never to be seen again. The tides of history sweep the beaches clean: for that, we have to be thankful.
[i] Brady spoke on “Sunday Morning Futures.”, Fox News
[ii] https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump, 22 October 2018
[iii] More details at < https://www.specialtypharmacytimes.com/news/trump-administration-seeks-to-cut-drug-costs-with-medicare-payment-overhaul>
[iv] https://www.phrma.org/press-release/phrma-statement-on-hhs-speech-and-part-b-proposal
[v] Ibid. The last few weeks have been ‘spectacular’!
[vi] https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/donald-trumps-final-bitter-midterm-rallies
